Wednesday, January 11, 2012

To: Friends & Supporters

From: Gary L. Bauer



Tune in to Fox News tonight at 8:00 PM ET. I will be on "The O'Reilly Factor" to discuss the state of the 2012 presidential campaign.

Congratulations, Mitt

It was widely expected that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would win in his "own backyard" last night, and he did so in a very convincing manner. New Hampshire voters sent an unmistakable message: Mitt Romney is THE front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination.

The Romney campaign did not get a clear win in Iowa due to a late surge by Senator Rick Santorum, who essentially tied for first place. But there are no muddled messages coming out of New Hampshire this morning. Most analysts felt Governor Romney would win at least 35%, and he exceeded those expectations. Here are the results:

Romney 39%
Paul 23%
Huntsman 17%
Gingrich 10%
Santorum 9%
Perry 1%

What's Next?

While Governor Romney scored a convincing win last night and heads to South Carolina with considerable momentum, the race is not over yet. South Carolina is not New Hampshire. For example:

  • A majority of voters in last night's New Hampshire primary were either Independents (47%) or Democrats (4%).
  • 47% were Republicans.
  • 53% identified as conservative, while 47% identified as moderate or liberal.
  • Only 22% of voters identified as born again or evangelical Christians.

In contrast, 2008 exit polls found that 69% of South Carolina's Republican primary voters were self-identified conservatives and 60% were evangelical Christians. In other words, South Carolina's GOP primary voters look much more like Iowa's than New Hampshire's. That is why candidates like Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry still have hope. And instead of just six days of campaigning between Iowa and New Hampshire, they have ten days to get their message out before the January 21st primary.

Ron Paul's Liberal Base

I think I have made my views of Ron Paul pretty clear in these daily reports. But I continue to be shocked and dismayed that I am hearing from so many self-identified Christian conservatives who claim that Ron Paul is the most conservative candidate in this race. The fact is, Ron Paul is the candidate who is attracting the most liberal voters. Why? Because they agree with him on foreign policy and values issues!

But don't take my word for it. Once again, the exit polls have revealed some fascinating information about Ron Paul's supporters. Here's a breakdown of the data from CNN's New Hampshire exit poll:

  • 12% of voters had never voted in a GOP primary before, and most of them (40%) backed Paul.
  • Of the Democrats who voted in yesterday's GOP primary, 41% supported Jon Huntsman and 24% backed Ron Paul.
  • Of the 47% of Independents who voted yesterday, most of them (32%) backed Ron Paul.
  • 16% of voters identified as "very liberal" on social issues such as abortion. 39% backed Ron Paul.
  • In contrast, 25% of voters identified as "very conservative" on social issues, and they split 29% for Romney and 24% for Santorum.

Here's more. A pre-election Rasmussen poll released yesterday morning found this disturbing information: Of the 18% of voters who had a "very favorable" opinion of Ron Paul, just 14% of them said they would back the GOP nominee if their favorite candidate (presumably Paul) did not win. But 16% indicated they would vote for Barack Obama and 66% said they would vote for a third party candidate.

Truth Matters

Edmund Burke famously observed, "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." It has happened time and again throughout history, and it may be the most compelling lesson of history. How did the Holocaust happen? Because good men did nothing.

How do you kill 11 million people? That is the question posed by New York Times best-selling author Andy Andrews. In fact, that is the title of his latest book. And what Andrews discovered in pondering that question is that truth matters.

My friends, I rarely use this space to promote other products. But in a time such as this, I believe this book is a "must read."


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