Monday, February 6, 2012

To: Friends & Supporters

From: Gary L. Bauer

COUNTDOWN TO VICTORY: 274 DAYS TO THE 2012 ELECTIONS

Romney Wins Nevada

This morning Mitt Romney was declared the certified winner of Saturday's Nevada caucuses. Romney took 50% of the vote to 21% for Newt Gingrich, 19% for Ron Paul and 10% for Rick Santorum.

Unfortunately, turnout appeared to be down nearly 30%. In 2008, 44,000 votes were cast in the Nevada GOP caucuses. Just over 32,000 voters participated in Saturday's contest. This follows declining GOP turnout in the Florida and New Hampshire primaries. Is the increasingly nasty battle between Romney and Gingrich turning off GOP voters and helping Obama?

Santorum Surges

That may seem like an odd headline after reporting Santorum's fourth place finish in Nevada. But according to pollster Scott Rasmussen, Rick Santorum has surged in the polls and actually outperforms Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in head-to-head matchups against Barack Obama.

In Rasmussen's data released this weekend, Obama leads Romney by seven points -- 49% to 42%. He leads Gingrich by eight points -- 49% to 41% -- and Obama leads Ron Paul by 12 points -- 50% to 38%. But Rick Santorum leads Obama by one point -- 45% to 44%. Electability, anyone?

Another poll finds Santorum running second in Colorado and leading Romney in Minnesota. Both states hold caucuses tomorrow. Santorum is also expected to do very well in Missouri, which is holding a non-binding primary tomorrow.

For more on the state of the GOP contest, check out these articles at National Review Online and The Weekly Standard making the case that Rick Santorum is the best candidate for Republicans to nominate.

Is Paul Double-Dipping?

The Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call reports that Texas Congressman Ron Paul allegedly double-billed for travel expenses. Here is an excerpt:

"Rep. Ron Paul appears to have been paid twice for flights between Washington, D.C., and his Congressional district, receiving reimbursement from taxpayers and also from a network of political and nonprofit organizations he controlled… Roll Call identified eight flights for which the Texas Republican, a GOP presidential candidate and leading champion of smaller government, was reimbursed twice for the same trip. Roll Call also found dozens more instances of duplicate payments for travel from 1999 to 2009, totaling thousands of dollars' worth of excess payments…"

Don't Let Big Media Discourage You

The liberal media is trying to discourage conservative voters once again. ABC News and the Washington Post are trumpeting their latest poll finding Barack Obama with a "a clear edge" over the Republican front-runner, Mitt Romney. According to this big media poll, Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%. Don't be discouraged.

First, the poll was conducted among adults, which always skews to the left. Polls of registered voters are better, and polls of likely voters are preferable.

Second, the Post is once again refusing to release critical information regarding the partisan breakdown of its sample. This is important because the Post has a history of oversampling Democrats.

For example, an April 2011 ABC News/Washington Post poll had the following partisan breakdown: 41% independents, 32% Democrats and 22% Republicans. That might be representative of some San Francisco suburbs, but that is not what America looks like.

Are Jewish Voters Fleeing Obama?

A new study by the respected Pew Forum finds that the Republican Party has made significant gains among men and women of faith since the 2008 election. For example, in 2008 white Catholics favored the Democrats by eight points. In 2011, they favored Republicans by seven -- a swing of 15 points. That's not surprising given Obama's repeated assault on religious liberty, traditional marriage and the sanctity of life.

But here's the finding that got the most attention: "Even Jewish voters … have moved noticeably in the Republican direction; Jewish voters favored the Democrats by a 52-point margin in 2008 but now prefer the Democratic Party by a significantly smaller 36-point margin." That's a swing of 16 points, and as one report noted, "the drop is enough to spark concerns that it could have a real effect in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania."

Again, this isn't terribly surprising given Obama's anti-Israel policies, appeasement of Iran and his obvious disrespect for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But in the weeks and months ahead, the Obama campaign will attempt to confuse voters with deceptive and misleading rhetoric while insisting he deserves a second term.

Whether it is using the Gospel to promote his socialism or suggesting he is a friend to Israel, it is important to remind people of the facts. America cannot afford four more years of Barack Obama!

The Abortion Taint

When, in the 2008 presidential campaign, pro-lifers suggested that Barack Obama's abortion radicalism made him "pro-abortion," Obama had a ready response. "I don't know anybody who is pro-abortion," he'd say, and that would usually end the discussion. But Obama's assertion highlighted the growing unwillingness of many to be associated with the gruesome practice. Read more in my latest column at HumanEvents.com.

Happy Birthday!

Today is Ronald Reagan's 101st birthday. As loyal readers of this daily report know, I had the privilege of serving in all eight years of the Reagan Administration, as Under Secretary of Education and eventually as Chief Domestic Policy Advisor to the President.

He was a remarkable man and a great president. There is a reason that more than 20 years after his presidency ended, Republicans still compete to be the candidate who can carry the Reagan mantle.

In the midst of the Carter malaise, Ronald Reagan never gave up on America. And we must not give up either. In 274 days, let's make Barack Obama a one-term president, just like Jimmy Carter.
 

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