Friday, December 2, 2011

To: Friends & Supporters

From: Gary L. Bauer


8.6% -- Really?

Today's unemployment report has a lot of folks scratching their heads in disbelief. According to the Labor Department, the official unemployment rate fell from 9% to 8.6% after the economy added just 120,000 jobs. The White House is bragging about this dramatic drop in the unemployment rate, and you can almost hear a chorus of "Happy Days Are Hear Again" coming from the DNC headquarters.

But all the experts have been saying that the economy would have to create between 200,000 and 250,000 new jobs to move the unemployment rate. So how could 120,000 jobs cause such a sharp drop?

Here's how: 315,000 people -- more than twice the number of new jobs -- dropped out of the work force last month. They gave up trying to find a job, so they no longer count when the figures are calculated. And smaller work force figures allow for larger percentage gains from smaller job growth. If all the jobless would just stop looking, the unemployment rate would be zero!

Unfortunately, we already have one of the lowest levels of total workforce participation in modern history, meaning that there are fewer and fewer workers paying taxes to support all of Obama's spending. But given this administration's history of deception, I have no faith in these figures, and you shouldn't either.

In fact there was bad news behind the headlines. Hourly earnings were down last month, and year-to-year earnings rose just 1.8%. That is not enough to keep up with the pace of inflation, which is well above 3%. In addition, just yesterday, weekly jobless claims rose again.

But let's assume for the sake of argument that the unemployment and job growth figures are valid. Whom do we thank for that? As Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, noted today, "The Obama Administration told the American people that the stimulus legislation would bring the unemployment rate down to 6.5% by now." So, we can't really credit Obama's two-year-old stimulus bill.

And as Obama is constantly reminding us, he can't get any of his great ideas through Congress now because of GOP obstructionism. So clearly it's not anything he's done lately either.

Is it a coincidence that the unemployment rate is coming down after the GOP took control of the House of Representatives and slammed the brakes on Obama's agenda? I don't believe it really is falling, but if it is, then thank you, House Republicans!

I, I, I, Me, Me, Me

Is Barack Obama worried about his own unemployment in 2012? Andrew Malcolm, writing in Investor's Business Daily, notes that Obama's speeches to big donor events in New York City this week were strikingly desperate and urgent, and they're all about him.

For example, in one speech Obama warned, "The very core of what this country stands for is on the line." On that point we agree. But then Obama went on to say:

"I've got to win in 2012."

"In order to finish the job, I'm going to have to have a second term."

"I need a couple more years to finish the job."

"I'm going to need another term to finish the job."

And, "I'm going to need a few more years to finish the job."

As Malcolm notes, "This was in one speech. He gave three of them," Wednesday. But this is the sort of rhetoric used to energize activists in the closing days of a campaign, "Not 10 months before even early voting opens."

My friends, I've been warning for months that this campaign will be vicious and brutal. If Obama is this desperate now, just wait until October of 2012.

Corzine Summoned To Congress

Two weeks ago, I wrote in this daily report that House Republicans should haul Jon Corzine up to Capitol Hill and demand that he testify about the billion-dollar investment scandal at the hedge fund he used to run. I'm pleased to report that our friends in Congress are doing just that.

The House Agricultural Committee today voted unanimously to subpoena Corzine to testify next week. In addition, two other congressional committees have called on him to appear before them the following week.

Corzine, a liberal Democrat and former senator and governor of New Jersey, was a frequent guest on cable news shows. But he has disappeared since the scandal erupted weeks ago. According to reports, more than one billion dollars has also disappeared from investors' accounts. But if Corzine were a conservative, I'm sure the media would be reminding us every day about his party affiliation and his corruption.

Newt, The New Front-Runner

The latest national Rasmussen poll of GOP primary voters is causing a lot of buzz in Washington. According to the findings, Newt Gingrich has opened up a whopping 21-point lead over Mitt Romney -- 38% to 17%.

Gingrich's surge is clearly coming at Cain's expense. At the beginning of the month, Cain led the field at 26%. Today he is tied for third place with Ron Paul at 8%. (Bachmann, Perry and Santorum are at 4% and Huntsman is at 3%.) This is also the first poll since late September to put Herman Cain in the single digits.

It is worth repeating, however, that the race will not be decided in one national primary, but in a series of state-by-state races. So let's take a look at the average of recent polls in the early voting states.

  • In Iowa, it's Gingrich 26.3%, Romney 15%, and Cain at 14.3% and Ron Paul 11%. No other candidate is in double digits.
  • In New Hampshire, Romney leads 36.2% to Gingrich's 19.6%. Paul has 13.4%.
  • In South Carolina, it's Gingrich 26.3%, Romney 17.7% and Cain 16.7%.
  • In Florida, its Gingrich 35.7%, Romney 19.3% and Cain also at 19.3%.

Should Gingrich win the nomination, how would he fare against Barack Obama? According to another Rasmussen poll released this week, he leads Obama 45% to 43%. Of course, that's before the liberal media and political establishments, as well as the Obama campaign, spend a billion plus dollars demonizing him.

But for now it seems that the former Speaker of the House is the latest front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. And that seems to be a very dangerous position to be in. 

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